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Corona Virus....
MACS Offline
#101 Posted:
Joined: 02-26-2004
Posts: 79,798
delta1 wrote:
NOW the markets are worried...and it is likely things will get worse as the number of countries around the globe announce infection numbers and death counts...

time to buy stock in the companies racing to develop the vaccine and the healthcare sector in general...


Yeaup... dropping like a stone the last couple days. I'm not worried about it.
rfenst Offline
#102 Posted:
Joined: 06-23-2007
Posts: 39,336
delta1 wrote:
what're you thinking? "act of God" exclusion?

If you don't believe in free will, then everything is an "act of god".
victor809 Offline
#103 Posted:
Joined: 10-14-2011
Posts: 23,866
rfenst wrote:
NIH says death rate is 2.5% with the overwhelming number of deaths being the elderly and already sick people


Yeah. It tends to go down after an initial outbreak, since usually there are a lot of un-counted cases at the beginning of an outbreak (for instance, otherwise healthy people who get COVID-19 may just think they have the normal flu and recover from it after bedrest. This can happen with a lot of people before the first person ends up at a hospital with a case that simply isn't going away.... so the death rates are higher in the first weeks. Until people know to look for the symptoms and report them).

But KotC is correct, if the number of cases gets high enough (and that's still a BIG if) then it can overwhelm existing infrastructure and the death rate can rise because the sick aren't able to be properly treated.

But I don't think it will get as high as he thinks... mainly because in the end it's a virus. There isn't a lot of medical treatment that is necessary other than hydration and keeping the body temperature reasonable. Otherwise healthy people can survive this, as they survive the flu with in-home care. It will be the elderly or otherwise sick who really need the hospital care.

This is one of those diseases that could really make a lot of vacancies in a nursing home if one person brings it in. (I remember the home my mother was in one year had a lot of flu deaths. They just couldn't stop it, even though everyone was vaccinated. Watched them wheel a person right out the front door in a black plastic bag on a random visit).
delta1 Offline
#104 Posted:
Joined: 11-23-2011
Posts: 28,797
Speyside wrote:
I don't think so Al, yes China isn't truthful about this. But the numbers indicate that a small percentage will die. The death toll in 3rd world countries like China are outliers that presently make the death rate percentage higher than it will end up being.



maybe so...this virus is not spreading as fast as the last deadly pandemic of the Hong Kong flu in 1968...half million people were infected within a few weeks...more than a million people died worldwide, with a death rate of 0.5%...mostly those already ill or elderly...

the numbers of infected people in different countries all over the world are not very high, less than 100K, if the estimates in China are accurate...but the death rate is higher than the last severe pandemic...
tamapatom Offline
#105 Posted:
Joined: 03-19-2015
Posts: 7,381
Low percent death rate doesn't mean much if you are one of the unlucky ones.
USNGunner Offline
#106 Posted:
Joined: 05-17-2019
Posts: 4,402
KingoftheCove wrote:
Just a little bump....
Chit is spiraling just about how many were figuring it would.

I’ll bump this thread again in a couple weeks, and we’ll see where we are...



I went to the commissary today at the Arsenal and loaded up on canned goods. I'm good on rice, beans, flour, I have a grain mill, grains, and a well established sourdough starter so we're golden there.

I pray everyday that I'm wrong and this is much ado about nothing, but I don't believe so.

Your assessment is spot on. It's not the pandemic that kills most, it's the famines that follow. Laying in some extra stuff you'll use anyway is cheap, and I mean cheap insurance.

FWIW. YMMMV. Not talking
USNGunner Offline
#107 Posted:
Joined: 05-17-2019
Posts: 4,402
Speyside wrote:
More people will die from the flue this year.


Yeah, but it's chimney season and those damned things are heavy! Frying pan
frankj1 Offline
#108 Posted:
Joined: 02-08-2007
Posts: 44,222
USNGunner wrote:
Yeah, but it's chimney season and those damned things are heavy! Frying pan

every spring they find a few dead fat guys in Santa suits stuck in them
MACS Offline
#109 Posted:
Joined: 02-26-2004
Posts: 79,798
^Good wif wurds...
frankj1 Offline
#110 Posted:
Joined: 02-08-2007
Posts: 44,222
MACS wrote:
^Good wif wurds...

I mighta kilt Santa!
victor809 Offline
#111 Posted:
Joined: 10-14-2011
Posts: 23,866
Well we're all good.
Apparently today twitler told us that "It's going to disappear. One day it's like a miracle, it will disappear,"

Told you guys it wouldn't be an issue.
KingoftheCove Offline
#112 Posted:
Joined: 10-08-2011
Posts: 7,637
victor809 wrote:
Well we're all good.
Apparently today twitler told us that "It's going to disappear. One day it's like a miracle, it will disappear,"

Told you guys it wouldn't be an issue.

Ya...........you sure did.........you very smaht........like our Commander in Chief...

On Feb 11 victor809 wrote:
___________
In all seriousness, this isn't going to be that bad.

This virus seems to spread quickly and easily, but it's not showing a particularly high mortality.
At first glance we've got 40k cases in china, with only 1k dead. And keep in mind death rate is likely estimated higher at the beginning of an outbreak, due to sampling errors (early on in an outbreak you will see a higher death rate as cases which only result in illness may not be noticed as the novel virus.)...

Like someone said earlier, Influenza is still a more disruptive disease. Get vaccinated.

_____________

You’re like a..................wizard..........peering into da future....
clintCigar Offline
#113 Posted:
Joined: 05-14-2019
Posts: 4,682
https://image.cnbcfm.com/api/v1/image/106413795-1582854284897cv740pxflatmapfeb27.png
victor809 Offline
#114 Posted:
Joined: 10-14-2011
Posts: 23,866
Hey, if trumpenfurher agrees with me I must be right!
You calling dear leader wrong? That'd make you a libtard in these parts
KingoftheCove Offline
#115 Posted:
Joined: 10-08-2011
Posts: 7,637
victor809 wrote:
Hey, if trumpenfurher agrees with me I must be right!
You calling dear leader wrong? That'd make you a libtard in these parts

How DARE you make an accusation as vile as that............................Comrade!
frankj1 Offline
#116 Posted:
Joined: 02-08-2007
Posts: 44,222
I think I got the brain fever
victor809 Offline
#117 Posted:
Joined: 10-14-2011
Posts: 23,866
Currently running rampant through an elderly care facility in Kirkland. 2 dead and possibly 50 showing symptoms. That place is going to have a VERY high death rate.
victor809 Offline
#118 Posted:
Joined: 10-14-2011
Posts: 23,866
victor809 wrote:
Yeah. It tends to go down after an initial outbreak, since usually there are a lot of un-counted cases at the beginning of an outbreak (for instance, otherwise healthy people who get COVID-19 may just think they have the normal flu and recover from it after bedrest. This can happen with a lot of people before the first person ends up at a hospital with a case that simply isn't going away.... so the death rates are higher in the first weeks. Until people know to look for the symptoms and report them).


They are now saying they suspect that the COVID19 had been in Washington state much longer than they originally thought

huh.... and here I was talking about uncounted cases.....
Speyside Offline
#119 Posted:
Joined: 03-16-2015
Posts: 13,106
Corona virus may have been here longer than realized. It may be more virulent than initially suspected. It may have unrealized as of yet vectors. We may be seeing an initial spike. It may have mutated. I think the only thing obvious right is how critical tracking is.
MACS Offline
#120 Posted:
Joined: 02-26-2004
Posts: 79,798
victor809 wrote:
They are now saying they suspect that the COVID19 had been in Washington state much longer than they originally thought

huh.... and here I was talking about uncounted cases.....


Can't argue that people had to be going in and out of China long before they decided to share the problem with the rest of us. Yay communism and their asspipe leaders!
Stogie1020 Offline
#121 Posted:
Joined: 12-19-2019
Posts: 5,346
Had to go to Wally World yesterday. Shelves were cleared out of Anti-Bacterial soap. Plenty of regular soap left, though.

The irony of people using antibacterial soap to try to kill a virus.

Just wash yer damn crumb grabbers!
opelmanta1900 Offline
#122 Posted:
Joined: 01-10-2012
Posts: 13,954
victor809 wrote:
They are now saying they suspect that the COVID19 had been in Washington state much longer than they originally thought

huh.... and here I was talking about uncounted cases.....

If it's been here for much longer than we originally thought, doesn't that mean there have likely been far more cases than we currently know about but probably not more deaths?

And wouldn't that make the death rate much closer to "on par" with other common viruses?
Buckwheat Offline
#123 Posted:
Joined: 04-15-2004
Posts: 12,251
https://www.theonion.com/panicked-who-officials-not-sure-how-to-respond-after-co-1842060711?utm_source=TheOnion_Daily_RSS&utm_medium=email

Sarcasm
victor809 Offline
#124 Posted:
Joined: 10-14-2011
Posts: 23,866
opelmanta1900 wrote:
If it's been here for much longer than we originally thought, doesn't that mean there have likely been far more cases than we currently know about but probably not more deaths?

And wouldn't that make the death rate much closer to "on par" with other common viruses?


That's what I was saying earlier.
Probably a number of people treating this as the common flu and getting over it.

Not necessarily "on par" with influenza, but maybe not going to be reaching 5% levels of death and destruction when the numbers are all tallied.
victor809 Offline
#125 Posted:
Joined: 10-14-2011
Posts: 23,866
It is really cleaning out that nursing home though. I would guess there's 50-75 residents and already 7 are dead.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/nursing-home-covid-19-outbreak-highlights-close-quarter-spread-200303220606434.html
Speyside Offline
#126 Posted:
Joined: 03-16-2015
Posts: 13,106
I think the mortality rate will be slightly higher than first predicted but it is still a meh. I'm seeing people in masks and LMAO. They are the drugstore basic mask. Really? The compromised, old, and you will be more susceptible. OH SH1T! I am compromised and old! Nice knowing you guys!!!
delta1 Offline
#127 Posted:
Joined: 11-23-2011
Posts: 28,797
we're toast, Spey...
clintCigar Offline
#128 Posted:
Joined: 05-14-2019
Posts: 4,682
Buckwheat wrote:
https://www.theonion.com/panicked-who-officials-not-sure-how-to-respond-after-co-1842060711?utm_source=TheOnion_Daily_RSS&utm_medium=email

Sarcasm

LOLLOLLOL
frankj1 Offline
#129 Posted:
Joined: 02-08-2007
Posts: 44,222
never compromise
victor809 Offline
#130 Posted:
Joined: 10-14-2011
Posts: 23,866
Our idiot president agrees with me in the most irresponsible way possible during a potential pandemic.

He called WHO's current death rate estimate of 3.4% "... a really false number"
and chose to substitute his own randomly pulled out of his ass number of "....a fraction of 1%"

Don't get me wrong. I think he's at least half right. The 3.4% is higher than it will be in the end (his fraction of 1% is probably too aggressively low). And he's right for the correct reasons.... people have been getting sick and getting better without ever going to the doctor, and not being recorded as having the disease.

But it is extraordinarily irresponsible for someone in his position to say things like "A lot of people will have this and it's very mild. They'll get better very rapidly. They don't even see a doctor. They don't even call a doctor. You never hear about those people.... so if we have thousands or hundreds of thousands of these people who get better just by, you know, sitting around and even going to work, some of them go to work, but they get better...."

He's not wrong. But his words are going to get elderly people killed when someone who will get over this goes to work because they feel "ok-ish" and infects their 55 year old coworker (along with everyone else in the building)
dstieger Offline
#131 Posted:
Joined: 06-22-2007
Posts: 10,889
victor809 wrote:
Our idiot president agrees with me...Don't get me wrong. I think he's...right....He's not wrong.


ThumpUp
victor809 Offline
#132 Posted:
Joined: 10-14-2011
Posts: 23,866
I see what you did there....
dstieger Offline
#133 Posted:
Joined: 06-22-2007
Posts: 10,889
edited for clarity and brevity
clintCigar Offline
#134 Posted:
Joined: 05-14-2019
Posts: 4,682
2nd case in TX:

https://www.click2houston.com/news/local/2020/03/04/reports-first-case-of-presumptive-positive-case-of-coronavirus-in-fort-bend-county/
Gene363 Online
#135 Posted:
Joined: 01-24-2003
Posts: 30,822
Corona Virus Problem solved!

This is a virus free zone.
victor809 Offline
#136 Posted:
Joined: 10-14-2011
Posts: 23,866
dstieger wrote:
edited for clarity and brevity


At least you left in the "idiot"... so hell, it makes it pretty accurate.
victor809 Offline
#137 Posted:
Joined: 10-14-2011
Posts: 23,866
So now the idiot president is fighting over twitter regarding whether he told sick people to go to work.

Sigh.
Quote:

Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
I NEVER said people that are feeling sick should go to work. This is just more Fake News and disinformation put out by the Democrats, in particular MSDNC. Comcast covers the CoronaVirus situation horribly, only looking to do harm to the incredible & successful effort being made!
52.7K
8:30 AM - Mar 5, 2020


He's technically correct. He didn't say they "should" go to work. He said:
the dumbest president in US history wrote:

So, if we have thousands or hundreds of thousands of people that get better just by, you know, sitting around and even going to work -- some of them go to work, but they get better.

This is not saying that they should go to work. But this is clearly indicating that going to work can be considered "safe". ie "Hey, look, all these people (hundreds of thousands even!) went to work and feel better".... For anyone who doesn't have sick days to use this is likely good enough.

ironically, I bet those employees at the retirement homes don't get a ton of sick days, and likely don't have much opportunity to not go in (they are frequently very understaffed).... so it was likely this thinking that led to the deaths in Kirkland.

We have an extraordinarily dumb president, who is completely unfit for this sort of scenario where messaging must be precise and coordinated.
KingoftheCove Offline
#138 Posted:
Joined: 10-08-2011
Posts: 7,637
victor809 wrote:
So now the idiot president is fighting over twitter regarding whether he told sick people to go to work.

Sigh.


He's technically correct. He didn't say they "should" go to work. He said:

This is not saying that they should go to work. But this is clearly indicating that going to work can be considered "safe". ie "Hey, look, all these people (hundreds of thousands even!) went to work and feel better".... For anyone who doesn't have sick days to use this is likely good enough.

ironically, I bet those employees at the retirement homes don't get a ton of sick days, and likely don't have much opportunity to not go in (they are frequently very understaffed).... so it was likely this thinking that led to the deaths in Kirkland.

We have an extraordinarily dumb president, who is completely unfit for this sort of scenario where messapging must be precise and coordinated.

hahahah. Ah. Hahahahaha........of fuq......stop it........I can’t breath. Hahahaha
A politician, Democratic or Republican, delivering a precise and coordinated response............to anything?
Brick wall

Not talking
Those days are loooong gone......
victor809 Offline
#139 Posted:
Joined: 10-14-2011
Posts: 23,866
KingoftheCove wrote:
hahahah. Ah. Hahahahaha........of fuq......stop it........I can’t breath. Hahahaha
A politician, Democratic or Republican, delivering a precise and coordinated response............to anything?
Brick wall

Not talking
Those days are loooong gone......


Like 3 years ago?

I'm talking about consistent messaging. As in the president supports and reinforces the statements from their CDC, and does not contradict the statements of trained scientists.

This is not rocket surgery. I'm not asking twitler to even understand what the people with PhD's after their name say. I'm just asking him not to publicly contradict them.
dstieger Offline
#140 Posted:
Joined: 06-22-2007
Posts: 10,889
It might be argued that it is also extraordinarily dumb to suggest that the population takes Trump literally and at his word after three plus years of this
victor809 Offline
#141 Posted:
Joined: 10-14-2011
Posts: 23,866
dstieger wrote:
It might be argued that it is also extraordinarily dumb to suggest that the population takes Trump literally and at his word after three plus years of this


....I have to assume his supporters do.


His supporters repeat his statements. They cheer when he makes these statements. I have to assume they are listening to what he says and responding to what he says.

I would have to assume they are even dumber than I currently assume they are if they also don't take his statements literally.

Keep in mind, if this just impacted his supporters I'd just sit back and laugh as Billy Bob went to his job at the Jiffy Lube with the coronavirus. But BillyBob may sneeze on the invoice he hands to someone's innocent little grandma who isn't a trump supporter.

It's dumb for him to contradict the CDC (even though I think he's half right). It's dumb for him to suggest people have gotten COVID19 and gone to work and been fine (even though he's probably half right here too, just not the magnitude). This is NOT how you message to control a virus.
teedubbya Offline
#142 Posted:
Joined: 08-14-2003
Posts: 95,637
dstieger wrote:
It might be argued that it is also extraordinarily dumb to suggest that the population takes Trump literally and at his word after three plus years of this



some do, some don't.
Speyside Offline
#143 Posted:
Joined: 03-16-2015
Posts: 13,106
So is it brain science?
clintCigar Offline
#144 Posted:
Joined: 05-14-2019
Posts: 4,682
Dominican Republic has 2 confirmed COVID-19 cases. We may need to spray ROTT DR cigars with Lysol.

Krazeehorse Offline
#145 Posted:
Joined: 04-09-2010
Posts: 1,958
clintCigar wrote:
Dominican Republic has 2 confirmed COVID-19 cases. We may need to spray ROTT DR cigars with Lysol.


Hmmm. I wonder where most of the cello comes from.
clintCigar Offline
#146 Posted:
Joined: 05-14-2019
Posts: 4,682
Krazeehorse wrote:
Hmmm. I wonder where most of the cello comes from.

Ahhh good point. Looks like it's made here and in UK but there is higher potential corona cellophane available:
https://www.made-in-china.com/products-search/hot-china-products/Cellophane.html
clintCigar Offline
#147 Posted:
Joined: 05-14-2019
Posts: 4,682
Good read:
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/02/covid-vaccine/607000/
USNGunner Offline
#148 Posted:
Joined: 05-17-2019
Posts: 4,402
Another damned good read. Not just pertaining to this disaster, but the nations security to boot.

https://www.breitbart.com/radio/2020/03/03/rosemary-gibson-congress-ignoring-u-s-dependence-chinese-drugs/?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&fbclid=IwAR2jNI5qMZfwaqnOToWrGOQEpSuyk37rcYzXfSencmMTakqIQCottKHD9sI
tamapatom Offline
#149 Posted:
Joined: 03-19-2015
Posts: 7,381
Just talked with a guy having some custom fabrication done in a factory in China. All workers have been instructed to stay 6 feet apart from each other with no talking or group meetings.

This after they all returned after their trips back to their home villages for Chinese new year.
rfenst Offline
#150 Posted:
Joined: 06-23-2007
Posts: 39,336
An Israeli firm has developed a new diagnostic kit to detect the novel coronavirus and the idea of creating a home test is under discussion, the company said.
Hod Hasharon-based BATM Advanced Communications Ltd.’s CEO, Dr. Zvi Marom, told The Jerusalem Post that compared to the kit that is currently used by hospitals all over the world, BATM’s product is faster and more accurate, and within a few weeks, the company aims to set the cost at approximately NIS 1 [($.29)] per test. The kit is expected to receive the EU’s CE certification mark next week.

https://www.jpost.com/HEALTH-SCIENCE/Israeli-company-develops-faster-coronavirus-diagnostic-kit-619402
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