I’m trying to see the forest through the trees but the fog is too thick. Wasn’t Trump beating the pants off all of the other candidates? If he was, does that mean he’s the most electable? Or is there an implication that Dem voters would never vote for Trump over Biden but they might swing for one of the other Republican candidates? I’m not following the logic on the electability claim.
Also, is it possible that some voters might vote for Trump because they think he’s a better choice than Biden? Maybe these voters don’t love Trump but they don’t have confidence in Biden? I can understand some people voting for Biden because they hate Trump or because they think Biden is a better choice and not just because they hate Trump or because they are drinking the DNC KoolAid. All the above. Is there only one type of person voting for Trump? Just brainwashed MAGA and no others? That just doesn’t seem likely to me.
jeebling wrote:
It’s all about the margins. It depends on how truthful people are being on surveys.
-There aren’t many Always Biden or Never Biden people. The few Dems, Libs, Conservative Dems I’ve talked with and hear more about secretly want someone other than Biden and realize a Kamala presidency would lead to 8 years of Republican rule after. But they hold their line and shut up, and hope Joan talks him into hanging it up.
Trump has a stranglehold on 30% of the Republicans. He could shoot somebody in New York, call OAC a Can’t Understand Normal Thinking and azzrape a dead raccoon on a GoPro live feed and it would matter to that 30%.
There is another 40% of Republicans or Conservatives that don’t like him, but he wears the red jersey, so they are voting for him. Regardless
Those two camps are what you see posting pro Trump stuff on Cbid.
Then it gets dicey.
10%, maybe 15% of Republicans are Never Trumpers. Those are represented by the people who have become or has always been sick of his crap and resigned from the House of Representatives.
The last 15% are watching to see how these legal cases shake out.
The more convictions he gets, the more his support is going to flake.
Maybe the NY Hush Money trial only loses him 1 or 2%. That trickle gets a little runnier with each conviction.
Add to that, his mouth gets in his own way. Recent example;
Six weeks ago in Wisconsin, he was up on Biden by 2.5 points.
Three weeks ago, the lead was down to 2 points over Biden.
Then he said Milwaukee is a horrible city. The place where the Republicans are having their convention.
The latest survey from Wednesday of this week has Biden up a point.
I doubt many conservatives are going to cross over and vote for Biden. But the question is how many Republicans and Conservatives are simply not voting for this creep?
And people truly in the middle of the road are turned off by both.
The autopsy will be death by bleeding votes by mostly self inflicted paper cuts.
He’s still a slight favorite to win. But he has four and a half months to keep running his mouth and collecting convictions.
Edited by user
a year ago |
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