Welp... bad news on all fronts. My tax lady is also a money manager/financial advisor.
I owe the feds and Taxifornia. I knew I was going to, still blows... but when she files the return (can't until the 12th) there's an option to let both state and fed just withdraw the money from my account on April 15th, so I chose that option. Leave it there until the last minute, I guess... not that $4600 is gonna make any interest, but screw them.
In other news... she said the housing market is going to sh-t the bed this year, on par with 2008... and the stock market will follow suit. She suggests being conservative for the next 18 months, at least.